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Preface The Macroeconomic Review is published twice a year in conjunction with the release of the MAS Monetary Policy Statement. The Review documents the Economic Policy Group’s (EPG) analysis and assessment of macroeconomic developments in the Singapore economy, and shares with market participants, analysts and the wider public, the basis for the policy decisions conveyed in the Monetary Policy Statement. It also features in-depth studies undertaken by EPG on important economic issues facing Singapore. In this issue of the Review, we are pleased to present Special Feature A, which examines in detail changes in production structures and final demand in Asia at the industry level, so as to draw some implications for Singapore. Special Feature B surveys the literature on the impact of technology on inflation, including through e-commerce platforms. We are grateful to Professor Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College for contributing Special Feature C, which traces the evolution of US trade policy through American history to shed light on the forces that are shaping global trade developments today. Our thanks go to Professor Ng Yew-Kwang from Nanyang Technological University for reviewing in Special Feature D the debate on free markets versus government intervention from both welfare-economic and mesoeconomic perspectives. We would also like to record our appreciation to Souvik Gupta and Jiae Yoo from the IMF for preparing Box A, which extends previous work on estimating monetary policy rules for Singapore within MAS’ exchange rate-based framework. Finally, we would like to thank Associate Professor Peter Wilson for his assistance in editing the Review.

This Macroeconomic Review is produced by EPG, MAS. The team comprises: Abby Ang, Alvin Jason s/o John, Andrew Colquhoun, Angeline Qiu, Betty Chong, Brian Lee, Celine Sia, Chia Yan Min, Choy Keen Meng, Cyrene Chew, Edward Robinson, Erica Tay, Geraldine Koh, Grace Lim, Hema d/o Sevakerdasan, Huang Junjie, Ian Chung, Jasmine Koh, Jensen Tan, Kenny Ho, Li Tiansheng, Liew Yin Sze, Linda Ng, Marcus Fum, Michael Ng, Mohamed Ramli, Neha Varma, Ng Yi Ping, Nicholas Koh, Priscilla Ng, Seah Wee Ting, Shem Ng, Soh Wai Mei, Tan Boon Heng, Tan Choon Leng, Tan Yin Ying, Thasreen Refaya, Thum Jie Liang, Toh Ling Yan, Tu Suh Ping, Wu Jingyu and Xiong Wei. The data used in the Review was drawn from the following government agencies, unless otherwise stated: BCA, CPF Board, DOS, EDB, Enterprise Singapore, IMDA, LTA, MOF, MOM, MND, MPA, MTI, STB and URA


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